Egypt’s economic growth decreased from 4.2% in fiscal year (FY) 2014/2015 to 3.3% in FY 2015/2016, according to the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast report for the Middle East and North Africa for October 2016.
The report expected that economic growth will be rise to 3.6% in FY 2016/2017.
The exchange rate (EGP to USD) is expected to reach 11.30 by the end of FY 2016/2017, compared to 10.20 by the end of FY 2015/2016, and it is expected to register 12.61 in FY 2017/2018, according to FocusEconomics panellists .
The current account balance is expected to register 4.3% in FY 2016/2017, compared to 4.8% in FY 2015/2016.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast report projected that total investments in Egypt will register 5.3% in FY 2016/2017. Industrial production will increase to 3.2% in FY 2016/2017 compared to a shortage of 8.8% in FY 2015/2016.
The public debt is expected to register 89.9% of the GDP in FY 2015/2016, and is forecasted to decrease to 88.8% of the GDP in FY 2016/2017, marking an increase of 1.1%.
“In August, consumer prices rose 1.9% over the previous month, markedly above the 0.7% increase recorded in July. According to the Central Bank of Egypt, the rise mainly reflected a surge in prices for food and beverages, while prices for regulated items also jumped on the back of increasing electricity prices,” the report read. “Inflation came in at 15.5% in August, compared to 14 % in July and marked the highest level since December 2008”.
Meanwhile, annual average inflation rose from 10.7% in July to 11.3% in August, the highest level since January 2010. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as fresh fruit and vegetables, came in at a record-high 13.3% in August, notably above July’s 12.3% reading.
The report expects unemployment to register 12.9% in FY 2015/2016, while the government’s expectations are 12.2%. FocusEconomics also expects the unemployment rate to be 12.6% in FY 2016/2017, compared to the government’s forecast of 11.5% for the same period.
It also projected that the current account balance shortage will increase to 4.8% of the GDP in FY 2015/2016 compared to 3.7% in FY 2014/2015, forecasting that it will reach 4.3% of the GDP in FY 2016/2017.