Beltone Financial projected, in a report released Sunday, that fuel prices will rise by 35-45% in July 2018.
According to the company’s research department, that, along with the recent rise in water tariffs, will lead to inflation rising by between 3% and 5% in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018.
“We confirm our vision for the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to keep interest rates fixed at the coming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 28 June to absorb the next inflationary wave. We also confirm our view of the stability of revenues as local banks provide the necessary liquidity,” Beltone stated.
Beltone said it sees that the marked drop in inflation at the end of May 2018 gives room for the impact of the next rise in fuel prices on the outlook for inflation.
It explained that the annual rate of inflation declined significantly during the month of May to 11.4%, down from 13.1% in April, which was lower than Beltone’s forecast of 13%. This was mainly caused by a slowdown in food prices inflation to 8.6% from 11.1% in April. Beltone noted that most of the sector remained stable on an annual basis, except for the culture and entertainment sector, which saw a significant drop to 10.5% compared to 39.7% in April.
“On a monthly basis, inflation fell significantly in May, recording 0.2% compared to 1.5% in April, lower than our projection of 1.4%, driven by the food prices inflation slowdown to 0.3%, which is lower than 2.4% in April, despite the seasonal factors in Ramadan,” Beltone added.
Beltone believes that the fall was due to the offers of wholesalers to encourage demand rates, in addition to the decline in spending compared to usual rates during this time of year, noting that the inflation rates at the end of June will confirm which factor had a bigger role, as spending is expected to increase during Eid Al-Fitr and the beginning of summer holidays.