Naeem Research expected the annual headline inflation (CPI) for May, which should be announced on 10 June, to reach 12.4-12.9%, down from 13.0% in April, expecting the urban CPI index to record 390.9 points, the research firm revealed on Saturday.
“Based on our analysis, the continuous efforts made by the government to fill the gap between supply and demand of volatile food items (fruits, meat and vegetables) prior to the Ramadan season has helped negate the expected seasonality-led inflationary factors. In addition, we notice that the demand-push pressure this year has been a lot less due to lower household consumption. As per our calculations, the increase in prices of fruit items in May, should be more than offset by declining prices of some vegetables (MoM, to the extent of 11%, as per our estimates),” the report indicates.
Recollecting inflation for April, as reported by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) and the Central Bank of Egypt, the annual headline (Urban) CPI dropped to 13%, compared to 14.2% in March. Core CPI declined to 8.1%, versus 8.9% in March – due to favorable base effect and contained price pressures.
Monthly headline Inflation rate declined to 0.5%, compared to 0.8% in March. Core inflation dropped slightly to 0.4%, versus 0.5% in March.