Beltone Investment Bank expects to keep core interest rates at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) unchanged at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday, indicating that it may be maintained during the third quarter (Q3) of the year.
The investment bank, in a research note, said that inflation is expected to rise between 2.5 to 3.5%, pointing out that commodities could rise slightly by 7-10% at most, compared to the hike witnessed in the previous two fuel price hikes. It is considered since the implementation of the economic reform programme in November 2016 and due to the low improvement in purchasing power.
“We confirm our vision that monthly inflation will regain strength in Q3 of 2019 up by 2.6% on average, but the base year, and its positive impact, suggest a smaller increase in annual general inflation,” Beltone said.
It explained that inflation is expected to reach 13.3% in Q3 of 2019, almost unchanged from 13% in the previous quarter and for the second half (H2) to see an annual inflation read of 13.8% against 13.4% in H1.
“From here, we expect the stability of inflation within the target range of the CBE at 9% (+/-3%) by the end of 2020,” Beltone added.