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Naeem expects 4.6% decline in April headline CPI-U inflation - Daily News Egypt

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Naeem expects 4.6% decline in April headline CPI-U inflation

Anticipated decline is based on favourable base-year impact, food price consolidation

Naeem Research anticipates that the annual headline inflation, reported through the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), will decline to 4.6%, with the CPI recording 106.3 points.

April’s figures are the results of favourable base-year impacts and lower food prices, compared to the 5.1% reported in March.

Monthly headline CPI-U inflation is estimated to slow down to 0.1% in April, versus 0.6% in March.

The month-on-month (m-o-m) drop reflects the consolidation of food prices which have been impacted by lower-than-expected consumption patterns due to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

Prices of seasonally volatile food items, including vegetables, have most notably declined despite an expected seasonal spike in demand through the pre-Ramadan demand. Other variables that have affected prices include higher healthcare fees and internet services.

“Our analysis, which is based on locally gathered data on prices, and historical seasonality patterns, takes into account the following factors,” Naeem Research said, adding, “The food and non-alcoholic beverages index, which is 32.7% of CPI-U, is estimated to decline to -0.9% on a m-o-m basis, versus -0.1% in Feb, mainly due to a steeper decline in fresh vegetable prices.”

Naeem Research also assumes a bull market with inflation to drop to 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), and record -0.5% m-o-m. This is taking into account the drop in power tariffs implemented in March, whilst also excluding a higher increase in health and communication index price items.

In March 2020, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) and the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) reported a decline in the annual headline (CPI-Urban) to 5.1%. Whilst the annual core CPI was kept unchanged at 1.9% in March, April’s annual headline declined compared to the 5.3% reported in February 2020.

March’s monthly headline inflation rate recorded 0.6%, versus 0% in Feb, with monthly core headline inflation increasing to 0.4% versus 0.2% in the previous month.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages index declined by 1.7% y-o-y versus 0.9% in February, with a m-o-m increase to 0.7% versus -0.1% in February.

The transportation index declined to 15.3% y-o-y versus 16.1% in January, with a m-o-m decline of 0.4% in March versus 0% in February.

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