The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s hotel sector can expect the start of a recovery in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020, according to Colliers International’s latest MENA Hotels Forecast in September.
The recovery, which will take place following the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, is set to continue into 2021.
The report considered the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on 24 submarkets in key MENA hospitality markets, and forecast occupancy rates in the coming year.
It anticipates that the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s hotel sectors will witness a faster recovery in the MENA region. It also said that the UAE is likely to benefit from the build up to its EXPO 2020, with the actual event expected to start in Q4 of 2021.
Saudi Arabia’s hotel market forecast for 2020 assumes restricted access to Mecca and Madinah for pilgrims during Ramadan and the Hajj.
Colliers International said that, once the expected recovery begins in Q4 of 2020, the markets are expected to continue benefiting from the on-going tourism initiatives, upcoming mega projects, as well as domestic tourism.
It reported that Cairo’s hotel occupancy is forecast to reach 33% in 2020, with a decrease of 57% in year-on-year (y-o-y) occupancy variance. The report expects hotel occupancies in the Egyptian capital to reach 65% in 2021, with a 94% y-o-y occupancy variance.
Sharm El-Sheikh’s hotel occupancy is expected to reach 27% in 2020, with a decrease of 54% in y-o-y occupancy variance. It is projected to reach 43% in 2021, and a 62% y-o-y occupancy variance increase.
Hurghada is expected to record 29% in hotel occupancy during 2020, with a drop of 57% in y-o-y occupancy variance. However, it is expected to record 48% in occupancy with an increase of 69% in occupancy variance in 2021.
Meanwhile, hotel occupancy in Alexandria is expected to reach 44% in 2020, with a 45% y-o-y occupancy variance decrease. Nevertheless, occupancy rates are anticipated to increase in 2021 to record 62%, and 42% increase in y-o-y occupancy variance.
The UAE’s Dubai Creek/Festival City hotel market is expected to register a 42% occupancy rate in 2020, reflecting a drop of 48% in y-o-y occupancy variance. However, it is expected to record 68% in occupancy with an increase of 63% in occupancy variance in 2021.
Meanwhile, the UAE’s Dubai Palm Jumeirah hotel market is expected to register a 39% occupancy rate, with a drop of 50% in y-o-y occupancy variance. The report forecasts a significant increase in Dubai Palm Jumeirah hotel occupancy, to reach 67% and an increase of 69% in y-o-y occupancy variance.
Hotel occupancy in Mecca is projected to record 28% in occupancy in 2020, with an increase in 2021 to record 56%, with a significant increase of 101% in y-o-y occupancy variance.
Moreover, Colliers International reported that Madinah’s hotel occupancy is forecast to reach 30% in 2020, with a decrease of 52% in y-o-y occupancy variance. The report expects Madinah hotel occupancy to reach 56% in 2021, with a 87% y-o-y occupancy variance.