Recovery will be dependent on EM complex’s capacity to put in place efficient policies that speed up recovery, says institute
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The funds, which are 100% of the quota, will be made available for Egypt to address the economic impacts of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Institute expects total foreign investments in EM, excluding China, worth $304bn, lowest since 2004
Institute projects economic contraction in emerging markets this year, with global GDP growth of -2.8%
Equity and debt flows were -$52.4 bn and -$31.0 bn, respectively
Since 2007, households worldwide have added over $12trn to the mountain of global debt. The corporate and general government sectors have, however, accounted for much more of the build-up ($31trn and $34trn respectively), the IIF said in its recent report.
Egypt likely to see significant drops in Suez Canal transit revenue, trade, FDI, tourism flows, and remittances
IIF maintains expectations for recovery in 2H 2020
Year 2020 feared to be another challenging period for growth across EM
COVID-19 fears prompt sharp downgrades to corporate earnings estimates, raising the risk of fallen angels and fire sales.
How will ongoing oil tension impact MENA region?
According to the World Health Organization, to date, Covid-19 cases around the world reached 101,927cases, while Covid-19’s death toll recorded 3,486, placing people into a state of terror, causing them to cancel or postpone most of their economic activities.
While Turkey, Argentina, and Mexico experience pronounced weakness, Egypt’s FDIs hiked 5% during 2019 on YoY, according to Minister of Planning
“If we look in year over year terms through third quarter (Q3), growth was below the developed market average in Brazil, Uruguay, Turkey, South Africa, Ecuador, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina,” according to the IIF.
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $30.7bn in December, significantly higher than November’s $19.9bn
Region needs to pursue deeper reforms to strengthen business climate, improve competitiveness, says IIF
State’s household debt to GDP remains unchanged at 7.1% in 2Q of 2019, says report
EM securities attracted $22.5bn in October, says IIF
In its latest report, the IIF stated that it continues to have a relatively positive view on the global economy.
The IIF works in a sample of 25 past IMF programmes in developed, emerging, and frontier markets that started with debt to GDP ratios above 75%.
Manufacturing may have troughed in Q2 of 2019 globally, has been rising throughout Q3, says IIF
Net capital flows including E&O in Egypt to reach $7.3bn by end of 2019
Risks are tilted to downside due to less supportive external environment, says IIF
Notably, China’s share of inbound FDI rose steadily from 5.4% in 2013 to 10.5% in 2017.
“We expect growth in US crude oil production to decelerate from 1.6m bpd in 2018 to 1.3m bpd in 2019, 0.9m bpd in 2020,” says IIF
The state’s household debt to the GDP slightly decreased to 7.2% in Q1 of 2019, compared to 7.4% in the same period of 2018, the report added.
Equity, debt inflows reach $8bn, $18bn, respectively
Average growth in MENAP forecasted to decelerate slightly to 2.2% in 2019, says IIF
Decrease originating from government, non-financial corporates, says IIF
Institute advised Egyptian government to focus on essential challenges that still remain unaddressed